MORE FARCICAL P IG SPEAK

Dictator’s plea to Kevin Rudd: let’s talk to help restore Fijian democracy

EXCLUSIVE: Graham Davis, Suva | May 01, 2009

Article from:  The Australian

FIJI’S military leader, Frank Bainimarama, has proposed a summit meeting with Australia and New Zealand to try to resolve the impasse over his refusal to hold elections for another five years.

With the expiration of the deadline today for Commodore Bainimarama to announce an election date this year or face suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum, the dictator has defiantly said his own agenda stands.

“It is not going to happen. There will be no elections until September 2014,” he said.

Commodore Bainimarama said an election this year would restore the “racist” government of former prime minister Laisenia Qarase, whom he deposed at gunpoint in 2006.

“Qarase is finished. He will only return over my dead body,” he insisted. But the Fijian Prime Minister wants to map out a way forward to rebuild Fiji’s shattered relationship with its traditional partners and has challenged the Australian and New Zealand leaders to confront him in person.

“I would like to see Kevin Rudd and John Key face to face so I can explain things clearly to them about the changes we need to bring about,” Commodore Bainimarama said.

Stressing that the summit should be “immediate”, the Fijian leader expressed frustration about the attitude of Australia and New Zealand to his attempts to purge Fiji of racism and undertake electoral reform before elections in 2014.

“That’s the sad part about it. I don’t think the international community much appreciates what’s happening here.

“They need to come and find out,” he said.

Commodore Bainimarama was speaking after Fiji suffered fresh political upheaval early last month, when the Fiji constitution was abrogated, a clampdown launched on dissent and the media, and President Josefa Iloilo said elections would be delayed until September 2014.

Fiji faces becoming the first member to be suspended from the 16-nation Pacific Islands Forum.

In a wide-ranging interview with The Australian, Commodore Bainimarama was both conciliatory and pugnacious.

He predicted that the forum would baulk at suspending Fiji in spite of sustained lobbying from Australia and New Zealand.

He announced that the month-long state of emergency imposed in Fiji would be extended, including media restrictions.

And he repeated allegations that Australia was spying on Fiji and tapping his telephones.

He revealed that his long-term plans to produce a multi-racial democracy included the restoration of the Queen as Fiji’s head of state.

On his summit proposal, Commodore Bainimarama called on Canberra and Wellington to drop their insistence on an election in Fiji this year.

“That will only ensure the return of the racist government I overthrew in 2006. We need to get rid of racism in the next five years and then have elections that people recognise will bring about true democracy in Fiji.”

Commodore Bainimarama said he was prepared to give the Australian and New Zealand leaders a “cast-iron guarantee” that elections would be held in 2014, but not before.

Anticipating their response that he had broken a pledge to hold elections this year, Commodore Bainimarama denied that it was ever a formal undertaking.

“The Tongan Prime Minister, who was chairman of the Pacific Islands Forum, came to me for an informal chat and said ‘Look, there’s a lot of pressure on us and on you to set a date for elections. Why don’t you come up with 2009?’ So I said, ‘If we want to change that, we can talk about it later on’. I thought it was something we could discuss, a possibility, not something set in stone,” Commodore Bainimarama insisted.

The military chief said he did not believe the forum would proceed with its threat to suspend Fiji.

“No one has ever been suspended from the forum, and I just can’t see it happening. It’s beyond its mandate to suspend a member nation. In fact, if it was up to me, we would have removed Australia and New Zealand because they’re putting undue pressure on the Pacific islands and that’s not how we operate in the Pacific,” Commodore Bainimarama said.

The region’s elder statesman, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Michael Somare, warned on Tuesday that he was running out of patience with Commodore Bainimarama’s regime, and the forum had no choice but to suspend Fiji if it failed to meet today’s deadline.

But the Fijian leader said Sir Michael “would be thinking twice” about telling member countries of the need to do so.

“Sir Michael Somare and Fiji have a very wonderful, strong relationship going back to the days when he and Ratu Mara (the founder of modern Fiji) were friends. That relationship will remain,” he said.

Commodore Bainimarama appealed to his fellow island leaders not to be swayed by Australia and New Zealand.

“Fiji was one of the initiators of the forum. Why would they want to suspend Fiji? Is there killing on the roadside? Why suspension, just because we don’t go along with what the Australians and the Kiwis want?”

He also asked his fellow leaders to consider, in their deliberations, supportive comments last week to a US congressional hearing by a Samoan member of the congress, Eni Faleomavaega.

He told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Australia and New Zealand were making “nasty accusations” against Fiji and “acting with a heavy hand” about a “situation that is more complex than it appears”.

Ms Clinton promised to examine Mr Faleomavaega’s complaints and acknowledged Australia and New Zealand as the source of much of the US’s information about Fiji.

“She should listen to his advice,” Commodore Bainimarama said, expressing his hope for a change in US policy.

“There’s someone who understands what’s happening in Fiji. At least she will have somebody else besides Australia and New Zealand to listen to.”

Commodore Bainimarama also said he was unfazed by threats to move the forum secretariat from Suva, Fiji’s capital.

“There’s no need to move the forum headquarters, but I guess if they come to that decision, we’ll assist them. I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

In his interview with The Australian, the military chief also announced that Fiji’s month-long state of emergency, due to expire on May 10, would be extended.

The clampdown has seen the media muzzled and a prominent indigenous nationalist, Iliesa Duvuloco, detained for allegedly distributing pamphlets calling for a military uprising.

“We want this calm to continue for a while. The emergency regulations were brought in entirely for media censorship to ensure calm. I’m very worried about people like Duvuloco inciting people to rise up against the military and the Government of the day,” Commodore Bainimarama said.

He repeated allegations previously made by his Attorney-General, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, that Australia has been spying on Fiji.

He said he had personally confronted Foreign Minister Stephen Smith with evidence that his telephone calls had been tapped in breach of Fiji’s laws.

“We had to caution Stephen Smith about spying on us, that this was illegal in Fiji, and in that meeting he didn’t say anything. He didn’t deny or admit it, but I took that as confirmation, bugging our phones and listening to our conversations.”

But the military chief described it as an irritant, and said it had not made him more cautious about what he said on the phone.

“I really don’t give a damn what they hear,” he said.

The Fijian leader outlined some of his plans, including closer ties with China and India, which have replaced Australia and New Zealand as Fiji’s confidants and evident means of support.

Confirming that Chinese aid to Fiji had risen dramatically, he said: “Yes, the Chinese are giving us money. We have a wonderful relationship with China and we’re trying to build on that. They’re very sympathetic and understand what’s happening here, that we need to do things our own way.”

Commodore Bainimarama said his main task in the next five years before an election was to promote the notion of racial equality over the indigenous supremacist agenda of the government he deposed.

Pointing to recent high-level Indo-Fijian appointments, including the governor of the Reserve Bank, Sada Reddy – who replaced an indigenous Fijian – the military chief said: “My vision for Fiji is one that is free of racism. That’s the biggest problem we’ve had in the last 20 years and it needs to be taken out.

“It’s the lies that are being fed to indigenous Fijians that’s causing this. We need to get rid of Qarase and everything associated with the 2000 coup and begin entirely on a new path.”

The military chief envisaged that when democracy was eventually restored in five years, Fiji would ask the Queen to resume her position as head of state. The country declared itself a republic during the first coups of 1987. “I’m still loyal to the Queen – many people in Fiji are,” he said, acknowledging her photograph above his desk. “One of the things I’d like to do is see her become Queen of Fiji again.”

Advertisements

39 Responses to “MORE FARCICAL P IG SPEAK”

  1. Talei Says:

    Summit’s are for leaders, not wanna be leader thugs and criminals like Voreqe. Pahleeeeeeeeeease!

  2. still.small.voice Says:

    takes a phone tapper to know one i guess.

  3. Grace Says:

    Wailei jurege vaya e rau na makutu me rau sota vata kei Frank na PM ni NZ and Australia….

    Frank telling Sir Michael to think twice about suspending Fiji from the Pacific Islands Forum………..Sa yawa na threating e tu vei Bainivo ceke…..

    Laurai ga vua ni tamani lala sara tuga na qavota

    Walega ga qo dua na gone sucu mai China kei India…….Going back to his roots o Frank….

  4. church mouse Says:

    She’s my lady!!!!

    Well she’s all you’d ever want,
    She’s the kind they’d like to flaunt and take to dinner.
    Well she always knows her place.
    She’s got style, she’s got grace, She’s a winner.
    She’s a Lady. Whoa whoa whoa, She’s a Lady.
    Talkin’ about that little lady, and the lady is mine.
    Well she’s never in the way
    Something always nice to say, Oh what a blessing.
    I can leave her on her own
    Knowing she’s okay alone, and there’s no messing.
    She’s a lady. Whoa, whoa, whoa. She’s a lady.
    Talkin’ about that little lady, and the lady is mine.
    Well she never asks for very much and I don’t refuse her.
    Always treat her with respect, I never would abuse her.
    What she’s got is hard to find, and I don’t want to lose her
    Help me build a mansion from my little pile of clay. Hey, hey, hey.
    Well she knows what I’m about,
    She can take what I dish out, and that’s not easy,
    Well she knows me through and through,
    She knows just what to do, and how to please me.
    She’s a lady. Whoa, whoa, whoa. She’s a lady.

  5. EnufDictatorship Says:

    OMGoodness!!!! He doesn’t realise how he sounds like…unintelligent, reckless and INSIGNIFICANT!!!!!

    Well what do you when you cross a lowlife navy guy who only has his guns to show for his achievements, huh?…NADA…and this piece show that clearly…

    “I would like to see Kevin Rudd and John Key face to face so I can explain things clearly to them about the changes we need to bring about,” Commodore Bainimarama said

    DREAM ON VOREQE….ELECTED LEADERS DON’T LIKE TO MEET WITH THUGS COS IT WILL TARNISH THEIR HARD EARNED REPUTATION..JUST SEND THEM A LETTER..THAT IS IF YOU CAN WRITE IT YOURSELF!

    “No one has ever been suspended from the forum, and I just can’t see it happening. It’s beyond its mandate to suspend a member nation. In fact, if it was up to me, we would have removed Australia and New Zealand because they’re putting undue pressure on the Pacific islands and that’s not how we operate in the Pacific,” Commodore Bainimarama said.

    THERE’S ALWAYS A FIRST VOREQE..AND SADLY THAT FIRST RECORD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH YOUR THUGGERY RULE!

    He also asked his fellow leaders to consider, in their deliberations, supportive comments last week to a US congressional hearing by a Samoan member of the congress, Eni Faleomavaega.

    ENI IS ANOTHER INSIGNIFICANT AND DOESN’T KNOW WHERE HE STANDS….THE US AMBASSADOR IN FIJI ALONG WITH SEC. OF STATE CLINTON HAVE SAID THEY DON’T SUPPORT DICTATORS, SO WHOM DOES HE THINKS HE IS KIDDING TO TRY AND RAM=RAM SITA RAM TO THE LEADERS.

    “We want this calm to continue for a while. The emergency regulations were brought in entirely for media censorship to ensure calm. I’m very worried about people like Duvuloco inciting people to rise up against the military and the Government of the day,” Commodore Bainimarama said.

    SO VOREQE IS SCARED. LET’S RISE UP PEOPLE!!!!!

  6. Hosannah Says:

    Oilei eda mai Madua blerry ball berring o koya

    Its like we are calling the shots here!! And the confused state is not even worth laughing about anymore. It is Shame Blerry Shame. 1 minute we don’t care about those 2 and the next breath we are demanding a summit. Lowlifes demand catchphrases like Summit and the like. stick to what you know best Pig: Murders tortures and emergency regulations , you and your Graham Davis Masi Polo

  7. renegage Says:

    Just watching the idiots response to the Proposal to suspend Fiji from the PIF he certainly just keeps digging his grave. Surely there cannot be a more thick, docile brain dead illegal legal around…apart from Mugabe this guy takes the cake he is PATHETIC. no more Fijian soldiers on UN duty, Suspension from the PIF……lol dumbo still thinks he can save the suspension. Well its too late his words or desperate plea will not change whats about to happen…. its farcical its like a comedy festival……self appointed, gives himself medals lmao….What a clown…..what a disgrace Frank shame on you and your whole family of misfits….

  8. Save the Sheep Says:

    I think Season 2 of this Fiji Lost Melodrama is going to out rate the first season…

    So much material as Mr Bean gets promoted.. Again…..

  9. renegade Says:

    Just watching the idiots response to the Proposal to suspend Fiji from the PIF he certainly just keeps digging his grave. Surely there cannot be a more thick, docile brain dead illegal legal around…apart from Mugabe this guy takes the cake he is PATHETIC. no more Fijian soldiers on UN duty, Suspension from the PIF……lol dumbo still thinks he can save the suspension. Well its too late his words or desperate plea will not change whats about to happen…. its farcical its like a comedy festival……self appointed, gives himself medals lmao….What a clown…..what a disgrace Frank shame on you and your whole family of misfits….

  10. Willy Says:

    A cranck, a clown a misfit a murderer and a dictator. What have we done wrong to derserve this?

  11. Makare59 Says:

    Vinaka SV for the article from the Australian. Its the right catalyst. It has once again brought about these incessant putrid villification of FB. A person whose walking the path to Greatness. He is the Nelson Mandella of Fiji which is what these bunch of morally bankrupt Actroids cannot see. This planet is for everybody to live in with equality & peace. FB marches on with his objectives for a better Fiji for every one. He is the epitome of a modern visionary with a few questionable human failings of course. He may even build a special circus for the misfits & clowns that write all this gibberish on his objectives. As I’ll be away in the bush for a coupla weeks, I hate to admit that I’ll miss the laugh I get from reading the comments from the nitwits who fail to see beyond their nose. Thnx all the same,see ya in a coupla weeks, Happy blogging& may God bless you depraved lot of miserable obsoletes. No hard feelings. Cheers! Dredre ga meda cegu.

  12. renegade Says:

    Well may you be blessed in hell with Frank and his spastic comrades…. Please do not ask for help once Fiji sinks further into the crap heap. The only island nation to ever be suspended from the Forum ..Gee he must be doing everything right…he even said in clear english (well if that can be expected of Frank no school) that he does not think Fiji would be suspended as it wa not only up to NZ and Australia it was up to everyone…Well guess you just shot your dumb ass down…dohhhh.Frank you have just once again showed your breed…..a dumb ass.God Bless Fiji without this idiot.

  13. Nostradamus Says:

    When I hear Frank talking about summit I can only conclude that thief samy took the opportunity to go to Bali to advise his puppet Frank. Now he will come back and start flatulating about the samycharter again. Too bad for bonehead Frank that his boy samy thief couldn’t keep his sticky fingers off some “Caucasian’s” brief case and had to generate racial abuse to try to intimidate the poor fellow from checking his bag for the stolen goods. Shows that no matter how high up you get in government or the ADB, and Indian is still an Indian trying to scam and get away with what he thinks he can get away with like an animal instinctively catching his prey, when he is not even hungry. What kind of dalit steals someone elses brief case when he is the illegal PM’s voicebox and bag carrier.

  14. Asgrocky Says:

    Too late the, hero.
    He had his chance in Tonga to tell all about his big wonderful plans for a prosperous democratic Fiji and how he will achieve this thru a new electoral reform and a charter; he should have talked big then and convince them to understand and support his plan and tell them in their faces they are bullies if they refused, but instead he was toungue tied, cowed before the real leaders, lost his unique aggressive and threatening communique styled skills and croaked out without thinking, a March 09 election date which he later said, he “pulled out of his head”. Then another chance went begging as he refused to go to Port Moresby sending in his stead the little one who cried eeee… weee…. weee…. weeee….. all the way home. Well Franky if Rud won’t see you maybe John keys will see and talk to your messenger boy again. Was it Keys who said Khaiyum should stand trial? Maybe khaiyum has been polishing up for another meeting and has learnt to “neigh” next time.

  15. Asgrocky Says:

    Makare says:

    God bless you depraved lot of miserable obsoletes. No hard feelings.

    What a right good christian you are. No wonder Islam is growing so fast

  16. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Hey Bud!

    You have long tried to argue that Fiji’s delayed return to democracy has nothing to do with Frank’s fears of the verdict of the people!

    So what have you got to say to this? –

    Coup leader has shed his claims to be spearheading reforms
    May 1, 2009

    Letter to The Editor – Extracted from The Australian Newspaper

    In an interview with Fiji’s coup leader in The Australian ((‘Dictators Plea to Kevin Rudd’, The Australian, 1/5), Graham Davis reports that .

    Was this an acknowledgement by Bainimarama that the real reason he has suspended elections until 2014 is because he does not have political support? If so, he has undermined the core argument of the very person who was interviewing him: Graham Davis

    Until now, the coup leader’s sympathisers – like Graham Davis – have argued that Australian and New Zealand pressure on Fiji to hold elections was unwarranted because it was necessary to change the electoral system first (‘Dealing with the Dictator’, The Australian 16/4). Like Bainimarama, Davis claimed that Fiji’s communally-based voting system was itself responsible for perpetuating racial polarization. ‘Qarase and his ilk’, Davis wrote (quite wrongly) ‘can only be kept at bay if the electoral system is changed from one that favours indigenous Fijians to one that gives every vote equal weight’.

    This was also given by Davis as a reason for opposing international pressure on Fiji to return to the polls: ‘Why is Australia and the rest of the international community insisting on an immediate expression of the public will when Fiji’s electoral playing field is yet to be levelled?’

    Those of us who oppose the coup never believed this justification. Many of us support changes to the electoral system, but not under the barrel of a gun (see also Firth, letter 17/4, Robertson, letter 18/4).

    Now that Mr. Bainimarama has abrogated his country’s constitution, he cannot use the excuse of seeking political consensus around his reforms to the voting system to explain long delays before an election. While the constitution was still in force, it was at least conceivable that the regime needed time for political dialogue, which would then enable a constitutional amendment within the law. Now nothing prevents a decree to immediately introduce a new voting regime.

    So why the delay before elections? It is because the 57% indigenous Fijians would, as the Commodore told Mr Davis, support the government he ousted 29 months ago. What of the 37% Fiji Indian population? At the last elections in May 2006, four out of every five of the Fiji Indians backed the Labour Party, whose leader this week told The Australian that Bainimarama’s government is ‘autocratic and dictatorial’ (27/4).

    In other words, we are now at a very dangerous point in Fiji’s history – where a military coup leader has shed his claims to be spearheading systemic reform, and acknowledged that his seizure of power is nothing but a naked power grab.

    Jon Fraenkel
    Senior Research Fellow
    Australian National University

  17. Budhau Says:

    Jean, that statement about Frank, as reported by Davies – “Was this an acknowledgment by Bainimarama that the real reason he has suspended elections until 2014 is because he does not have political support?”

    First, is that what Davies had actually reported – that Frank acknowledged that he does not have political support so that is why he is moving the election to 2014 and is that what Frank has said.

    Or is it Fraenkel, pushing his own agenda by giving his own spin on the Davis report?

    FB’s position has been that we have to change the electoral system before we have an election. Under the old system, it is very likely that the SDL would win, because there is no level playing field.

    The reason for the date, initially was that those changes though the charter could not have been made by the 2009 deadline. Since the constitution has now been abrogated, the time line was further put off so that first we need a constitution in place before we have the election. (of course politics always plays a role when it comes to selecting the election date)

    That explains why the 2014 deadline – you may disagree with this explanation but, but that is what FB position has been – so where do we get this acknowledgment from – that he does not have the political support.

    Fraenkel reasons that since Fijians make up 57% of the population and since the Indians seem to have abandoned Frank (as per Chaurady’s recent remarks), that SDL would win overwhelmingly.

    I think Fraenkel is making some incorrect assumptions. Chaudary and the FLP would still be going up against the SDL – The Fijians would be spilt, with a large Fijian bloc vote going to the SDL. Thus, it is still possible for a FLP coalition with some minor Fijian parties to win the next election. It is likely that the Ganilua party and some Fijian party from the west would join Chaudary. (Fijians that may have supported Frank’s moves). Also note that the more populated urban areas will get more seats and urban Fijian are less likely to go with the “Matanitu vanua” mentality.

    Qarase, by playing the race card might scare a lot of Fijians to go with him, but there is still a chance of some Nationalists going on their own and the minor parties forming their own coalitions – look at the history of Fijian political parties.

    Fraenkel stated, “In other words, we are now at a very dangerous point in Fiji’s history – where a military coup leader has shed his claims to be spearheading systemic reform, and acknowledged that his seizure of power is nothing but a naked power grab.”

    You see how Fraenkel has changed things around – Even if that is what Franks plan is – I don’t think he has “acknowledged” this.

    Fraenkel – one of those “academic” types should know better.

  18. Talei Says:

    Frank and his illegal regimes days are numbered.

  19. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    The question is – why is Frank scared of elections.

    You can talk about unrelated issues till the cows come home if you want. But that won’t change the fact that there is now NOTHING to stop Frank putting in whatever the hell kind of electoral system he wants!

    So why then is this still going to take five years?

    Are you not at least intrigued by amazing coincidence that this timeline is roughly the same length as a normal macro-economic cycle.

    In other words, this is around about the time we should normally expect to see Charter policies “bear fruit” – that is, if they were actually derived from a proper understanding of the relevant problems in the first place. Or if they were being overseen and implemented by people who actually knew what they were seeing, or what they were doing!

    At least everyone else has woken up and smelled the coffee by now.

  20. belena Says:

    @makare59 2.17pm

    Dua ga e vakamakaretaka nomu mua i muri!

  21. Budhau Says:

    Jean, I think we had this one sorted out – that all coups were power grabs – and any justification for the coups – where the indigenous cause or clean-up campaign or electoral reform – they were all a load of bull.

    The fact still remains that if we have elections today, under the old electoral system, SDL wins.

    Bainimarama had indicated his preferences before the last election and based on his relationship with Qarase, we know that he wants the man out.

    I think, Frank’s argument is that we would only have an election after the necessary changes are made to the electoral system – first, that was supposed to be done through the Charter – that would have taken longer than the 2009 deadline.
    Now that the constitution is abrogated – I guess, it will take even longer – maybe 2012 – 2014.

    So I don’t think Frank would acknowledge that he is afraid of an election – he does believe that an election under the old system would secure a SDL victory – and he argues that this is bad for national security.

    Now, how much of that you agree with is not relevant – the point is that this will be his argument to convince the International community as to why the delay.

    Fraenkel on the other hand came up with this acknowledgment – the smoking gun.

    BTW – we all know that none of the Fiji coups were done for the reasons that the coup perpetrators gave us.
    The 1987 and 2000 coup was not to protect the rights of the “indigenous people” – but that theme went down well with the International community.

    The 2006 coup – first we had the “clean-up campaign” – that line was for local consumption – since the military did not know what kind of opposition would they see locally. Once they figured out that there was no significant local opposition – they changed their theme.
    It was Franks Tongan visit where we saw the 0ne-man-one-vote idea being marketed for the international community.

    Do you think Frank pulled this coup to put in a new electoral system. That Fraenkel dude writes, “where a military coup leader has shed his claims to be spearheading systemic reform, and acknowledged that his seizure of power is nothing but a naked power grab.”

    Come on folks, we all know that every coup that we have had was a power grab – no exceptions. They all tried to justify their actions after the fact. Fraenkel should know better.

    What Fraenkel is trying to do is counter this “electoral reform” argument that some folks abroad are buying into -he pushing the same fricken Australian agenda.

    There are folks in Fiji, while recognizing that shit happens, would still want to see a constitution that was better than what we had – and some of them jumped on the coup bandwagon after the coup was pulled.

    Fraenkels other argument was that those opposed to Qarase would not win the next election – and he reasoned that 57% Fijians, majority voting for Qarase, and those Indians, with Chaudary, are truning against Frank. Thus, Frank has no chance, and so hae has acknowledged that the reason for the 2014 date is just that. Fraenkel’s reasoning is flawed.

    A new electoral system, will not be less favorable to SDL, Frank ain’t running in th enext election, a CHaudary/Ganilau coalition with some other smaller Fijian parties and independents have a good chance of in the next election whether it was held in 2012 or 2014.

  22. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud – the cows are mooing, bro!

    None of what you said changes the basic fact we don’t have to have an election under the old system now.

    Frank can just put in whatever reforms he wants IMMEDIATELY. The fact that he is still scared to do that tells you that he knows he can’t win an election under any fair new system either.

    That is about as obvious as it can be. Everyone on this blog can see it. ALL the Forum leaders can see it. And the majority of people in Fiji can see it!

    If you want to try something else a bit easier to mislead us on, maybe you should try convincing us that red is actually blue!

  23. senijiale Says:

    Yehdo! The star-gazers hve finally left for the shrubs to play hide n seek!
    Chimoniis go get ’em!

  24. Budhau Says:

    Yes Jean, the cows may be mooing, however, you should know that cows are notoriously slow moving creatures and this ain’t over until the cows come home.

    Why we can have an election?
    As for 2009 – we could not have made the necessary changes to the electoral system through the Charter process in time to have the 2009 election.
    As for 2014 – now with the constitution abrogated, we have to put a new constitution in place, with the new electoral system incorporated in that constitution. That is why Frank has set the 2014 timetime.

    Of course, I think we can have an earlier election – have the constitution done by say about 2012 and have the election during the second term school holiday in 2012.

    What part of the above don’t you get – do you think that we can speed up the process of putting a new constitution in place any faster…go see how the 1990 constitution was put into place after the 1987 coup – and that constitution sucked. If took us three years to get the constitution going and another seven before we got something acceptable.

    BTW – the earlier response had more to do with Fraenkel, who is some academic type, and his flawed reasoning. He took a statement in Davies article and put that silly on that.

  25. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Nice try, Bud – but no cigar!

    Blue is still blue and red is still red.

    No one in the Regime is trying to make the argument you are making because it is just an excuse that you have just thought up. Any new Constitution will be just like the old one except for sacked judges, changed electoral system, and new role for military. So easy even Aiyaz Khaiyum could do it.

    You may not get this – but everyone else does.

    It is so simple that even the school children who are going to learn about it in history classes from now till forever won’t have any trouble understanding it.

  26. Budhau Says:

    Jean, if you take out all them insults form your comments from you remarks – ther was much substance in what you had to say.

    The fact still remains that we do not have a constitution – and regardless of what goes in the the next constitution, there is a process that we have go through and that process takes time.

    As for your claim that no one in the regime is trying to make this argument – about the timeline.

    First – when the Charter was being discussed, that was the reason given for why there would be no elections in 2009 – that the new electoral system can be put in place under the Charter process…thus the 2009 timeline was not acceptable.

    Now that the constitution is gone – it will take longer.

    As I said before, the 2014 date is a negotiation thing – Frank will take the 2014 and than negotiate from there – I think the realistic goal for election would be 2012.

    Thus, when the earlier 2009 demand was not acceptable to the regime, we were looking at 2010 0r 2011 – now with changed circumstances, I think it looks like an election in 2012.

    Now…if you cut out that crap about “any school child can understand this but Bud” or that “red is red and blue is blue” – and talk something of substance – maybe you can point out where my reasoning is flawed.

    What part of the above don’t you get – that why the 2009 deadline was not acceptable or why the date had to be moved further after the constitution was abrogated.

    As to what will be in the constitution and whether you approve of that is not relevant. We are just discussion the dates. Prior to this we were supposedly discussing Fraenkel’s “smoking gun” that was there in Grahan Davies article. You want to change the subject once more.

  27. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    It is not a matter of flawed reasoning. It is just that you cannot change reality by trying to twist reason to suit your pre-determined conclusions, or by cleverly wording arguments, or just re-asserting your position in the face of reason.

    The Constitution which you now claim is so important as to justify a delay in election, was obviously not worth a damn to the traitors who trashed it without a 2nd thought last month. Why do we even need a Constitution at all when the Regime will simply overturn it any time it delivers a result they don’t like?

    Are we supposed to believe the Constitution was so important before the Court of Appeals ruling. Then it wasn’t afterwards. Then will be again in the lead-up to 2014?

    What audience are we playing to with such a nonsensical charade?

    Not the International community certainly, cause then you’d be right back at square one – first the International community is important enough to engage with, then they aren’t worth a damn when we muck our diplomatic maneuverings up, then they are again when we have to impress them with our new Constitution – which was itself important, then wasn’t, then was again.

    And we can’t be playing to the people of Fiji either since they are obviously not important enough to have a say on their own future now. Or in future if they ever have the temerity again to hold a different opinion from the know-it-all Regime which can’t achieve even a single good thing for Fiji to prove that.

    That is all wayyy hard to keep up with when you are really just dealing with simple people who have very basic motivations.

    So if you want something simpler to focus in on where you’ve gone wrong, then try Occam’s Razor.

    Anyone who wants to accept your arguments, or Aiyaz’s, or Frank’s, can only do so if they are prepared to accept the wild leaps and and u-turns of logic highlighted above.

    Not to say that you can’t do that if that’s what make you happy.

    But most normal people will simply follow conventional principles and straightforward logic.

    Thus they will just do what the Forum leaders have done by looking at the unadulterated facts in front of them, and arriving at the most obvious and sensible decision.

  28. Budhau Says:

    Here is the flawed reasoning thingie that was talking about.

    All Graham Davies article said about Bainimarama was, “What would an early election achieve? Well that’s the problem: precisely the same dynamic that triggered the 2006 coup.”

    Jon Fraenkel took that and wrote, “Was this an acknowledgement by Bainimarama that the real reason he has suspended elections until 2014 is because he does not have political support? If so, he has undermined the core argument of the very person who was interviewing him: Graham Davis.”

    Do you get it so far – how Fraenkel reasoned from Davies article that Bainimarama had “acknowledged” that he does not have political support, so he is putting of the election.

    Davies piece, in its next paragraph said, “All sides concede that, without electoral reform, any poll in Fiji would produce certain victory for Bainimarama’s chief political opponent, Laisenia Qarase. And there’s the rub, for Bainimarama insists Qarase is finished because of his racist agenda and will return to power “over my dead body”.”

    The key words here are “electoral reforms”. No one reading this piece comes to the conclusion that Fraenkel came to – that Bainimarama is now acknowledging that his real reason for moving the election up to 2014 was that he did not have political support.

    Fraenkel may believe that to be true, and so might you – but the Davies article does not says that.

    Fraenkel then goes on to conclude that, “In other words, we are now at a very dangerous point in Fiji’s history – where a military coup leader has shed his claims to be spearheading systemic reform, and acknowledged that his seizure of power is nothing but a naked power grab.”

    That is where I find the reasoning flawed – that from the Davies article Fraenkel can come to this conclusion. There is nothing about changing reality. It could even be true that this was the real reason that Frank changed the date. However, you, Fraenkel and others who are opposed to Bainimarama have to make your case, independent of Davies article said. You cannot take a one-liner from some article and point that as the smoking gun – evidence that Bainimarama moved the election date because he does not have support.

    You next point was that I somehow now feel that that the “constitution is so important”.

    You got that one wrong also – it is not about the constitution being important – all I was doing was making the point that you have to have elections under some electoral system – the old one ain’t good enough, so says Bainimarama, they tried the Charter to implement the proposed changes and that did not work, so now they will have the constitution.

    My point was that it would take longer to get a constitution in place than it would have to make the changes though that charter, if that was possible.

    So you now understand the relevancy – why it is necessary to have a constitution in place before we have an election. It is not about the importance of the constitution – the new one or the old. We just need a constitution in place before the election – and the old one is abrogated.

    Do you have any other plan – like maybe reinstating the old constitution and making those boys just march on back to the barracks.

    You wrote, “What audience are we playing to with such a nonsensical charade?”

    Do you have a better, workable solution – as to how we get out of this.
    The International community has already bought into the idea that we need the electoral changes. Now the issue is that they “support the cause and not the means”. Thus the international community needs some convincing – and I think this regime will negotiate on this by offering to move the 2014 election date to about 2012. What date do you propose that is workable and acceptable to most of the parties involved?

    You wrote, “That is all wayyy hard to keep up with when you are really just dealing with simple people who have very basic motivations. So if you want something simpler to focus in on where you’ve gone wrong, then try Occam’s Razor.”
    Now, I feel really insulted! You feel better?

    You wrote, “But most normal people will simply follow conventional principles and straightforward logic.”

    OK, so show me from your “conventional principles and straightforward logic” as to how we are going to have an election in 2009 – and the forum countries invading Fiji, I don’t think that is an option.

    What the international community wants know is a commitment to an “early” election. They have already accepted that the next election would be under the proposed electoral system. Now we have to figure out what “early” means. Keep in mind that the constitution must be place when you decide what “early” is.

    What I see, going forward is that there would be behind-the-scenes negotiations as to how quickly we can get a new constitution in place – and that is something that can be objectively figured out. Once that is done, we will have a confirmed date – and I think that would be in 2012 – in the first or the second term school holidays.

    So what part of the above defies conventional logic?

  29. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    It didn’t take you long to wander off into improbability again.

    Your statement about “precisely the same dynamic that triggered the 2006 coup” assumes that what was done in 2006 was correct.

    Based solely on principle, it wasn’t. And most people simply do not accept you and Frank’s assessment of circumstances at the time, anyway. And now we also have the appalling empirical results of where Fiji has deteriorated to, to prove that we never should have taken that step then, or again now.

    The dynamic that triggered the 2006 coup was nothing other than Frank’s eye on the main-chance, his fear of fronting the Courts, and his disrespect for the Rule of Law.

    You cannot build a Constitution or a Nation on any of those flaws. As long as they are there, they will ruin any nation that abides them.

    Frank is not interested in running a nation on principle – he is interested in micro-managing certain results! If he can appear to be law-abidiing in the process, so much the better. But if not, tough luck.

    That means you will NEVER get rid of the alleged dynamic that led to the 2006 coup. If Mahen is allowed to run the Indian side of politics with his usual race-based agenda, then that will INEVITABLY result in the same thing on the Fijian side – regardless of whether Qarase is the leader or not. You cannot clap with one hand!

    So when Frank then turns the whole nation upside down to try and stamp that out, then here we are again right back at square one.

    So unless you remove the REAL 2006 coup dynamic of Frank’s lawlessness, you will never remove the coup culture, or Fiji’s present woes.

    And neither should you expect to continue dreaming up of excuses ex poste facto, to justify Frank’s mistakes.

    None of these excuses represent the thinking of the coup-makers at the time they made their bad decisions. So it is an artificial debate to try and argue them – even if the coup-makers eventually do start grasping at its straws.

    But the situation that we have in Fiji where the coup-makers are changing their excuses, goals and promises every year or so just doesn’t hold water.

    That is the final nail in the coffin or your excuses – the minute things change again in a year or two, the Regime will be off them again quicker than Lewis Hamilton on speed.

    That is because you are not dealing with people who have honour in any normal sense of the word. Their modus operandi is strictly “ends justify the means”.

    That means they will not stick to anything your plans, or any plans that anyone else makes up for them. They will just do what they believe is in their best interests at the time.

    So your “logic” would apply if we were talking about someone like Ratu Mara. And it might just even apply to someone like Mahen.

    But not these guys!

    You cannot divorce your plans from the quality of people running them. That is where your logic falls down. It only applies to credible people facing real problems. Not unreliable ones facing pretend problems.

    “We will hold elections in March 2009”; “No soldier will benefit from the coup”; “We will uphold the 1997 Constitution”; “We will respect media freedom”; “We will find evidence of corruption within months of the coup”; “We will hold inclusive dialogue to create an inclusive society”; “We will revive the economy and the Sugar Industry”; “We cannot just continue running the country by decree”…

    The list goes on, but I think everyone gets the point!

  30. Budhau Says:

    You see Jean, how you miss the point completely again and go off on a tangent.

    You wrote, “Your statement about “precisely the same dynamic that triggered the 2006 coup” assumes that what was done in 2006 was correct.”

    You then went on to discuss that “statement”.

    NO Jean, that was not MY statement and I did not even discuss that aspect of that quote from the Davies piece. I had made that clear that it was Davies statement, which was then picked up by Fraenkel who presented this as the smoking gun – that Bainimarama’s acknowledgment.

    At this point, I don’t give a rat’s arse what what triggered the 2006 coup, I don’t even buy into what Frank’s justifications/reasons for the coup. I have always said that all coups were power grabs – and some of the explanations for those coups were after thoughts.

    So could we get back to what we were talking about. There were two issues – 1) Fraenkel’s flawed reasoning – that Bainimarama had acknowledges in the Davies interview that he has no support and that is the REASON the election was moved to 2014.

    NOW…you don’t have to be a coup opponent or a coup supporter or some paid FLP operative to see how Fraenkel’s reasoning is flawed. He may be right as why Frank moved the date up – but there is nothing in the interview that shows an achnowledgment by Bainimarama.

    NEXT – regardless of what the reason of the coup was – shit has happened, the question now is how do we get out of this.

    Here, I pointed out that while the 2009 date was too early, it was not possible to complete the process and get the proposed electoral changes in the Charter, do the census, adjust the constituency boundaries and organize an election in 2009 – and 2010 whould have been a better goal.

    Since the constitution has now been abrogated, the process of putting a new constitution in place is even longer. Thus, a reasonable expectation for an election now would be around 2012.

    Bainimarama insisting the 2014 date is a negotiating strategy. He will now negotiate with those demanding an “early” election and gradually bring down that date from 2014 to about 2012 – and that may be acceptable to the International community and it would also look like Bainimarama is giving in to the demands for an early election and it would also show good faith – that Frank is being flexible. (note that I am not saying this to support Frank – I am pointing out a strategy that the regime would use.)

    Can we trust Bainimarama – well, the more dependent Frank is on the people he is making the promise to, the more we can trust him. So if Frank makes the promise to the Forum countries who are trying to isolate him and if Frank is than more dependent China – I wont trust him for his promises made to the Forum countries or the Commonwealth. That is whay we should be careful about isolating Frank – because if he able to survive in isolation, that makes him more dangerous. But than again, may be the A/NZ plan might might work – that is, make the situation in Fiji so miserable that the people would rise against the regime. Wile such policies have not worked in Iraq, Cuba, South Africa – but WTF – Fiji is such a dinky little country that sanctions and isolation just might work and Bainimarama may not be able to hold out like those other countries. And is that back fires, we can always send in Australian peacekeepers to get in the middle of some civil war.

    Now, do you see the reason why Bainimarama went with the 2014 date, why we could not have had an election in 2009 and why it is very likely that we would have an election in 2012 or close to that. And why we should not push Bainiamarama in a corner.

    This has nothing to do with whether I am a coup supporter, or a paid operative of the FLP or FMF – this is about conventional logic and practical consequences. .

    BTW since you had made an incorrect assumption about that statement attributed to me – “precisely the same dynamic that triggered the 2006 coup” – I think the rest of your post above does not require a response.

    So why don’t you limit the scope of this particular discussion and maybe you should comment on why the 2012 election date does not sound reasonable. Note that it is not me who is saying that I would like to have the election in 2012 – this is what I think will happen.

    My conclusions are based on looking at the situation and the bigger picture to see what is most likely to happen. You, on than other hand, are so pissed of about what has happened that you lose perspective.

    You don’t have to be a coup supporter or a coup opponent to come up with such conclusions – you do need the ability to think straight.

  31. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    The 2006 coup rationale statement may not have originally been yours. But you still used it to insist that Fiji couldn’t just take the obvious path out of this mess, admit the coup was wrong and misguided, and reverse all the mistakes that have been made since then.

    What is it exactly that is stopping us just backing the hell up out of here and going either to elections, or returning to the status quo ex poste ante?

    That was the obvious question before the Constitution was purportedly “abrogated”. Now we have another one to add to it – “Why can’t we return to the 1997 Constitution if there was nothing unworkable with it in the first place?”

    These are again being made out to be great mysteries that nobody else “understands” except those in power. But what indication do we have that they understand anything about what is going on in Fiji?

    Practically EVERYTHING they have told us since 2006 has either turned out to be untrue, or else a flat lie. It is painfully obvious by now that they have very little idea of how to run a country, or a Government, or even a flood relief operation. How then is it possible then for us to believe that people who have so little understanding that we CAN see, somehow have SO MUCH insight and discernment into the murky and intractable future that we, and they, can’t see?

    There is no real need for Bainimarama to acknowledge anything about his motives in the Davis interview, either. We already know that what comes out of his mouth is just about the worst guide there is as to what he is actually going to do. All that is needed is for people to make their own minds up on Frank’s track record, and the relation of that to which explanation (his, Davis’ or Fraenkel’s) best fits the known facts.

    Since we already know that there is no justification for the abrogation of the 1997 Constitution, and very little justification left for the 2006 coup, then all arguments that rely on those promptly fall in a heap.

    You really need to disabuse yourself of the misconception that Fiji’s race problems can be solved by coups, intimidation, lawlessness and manipulation. It may have SEEMED that way before 2006. But we can see now that it was just a figment of some very uneducated imaginations.

    Things have only been getting worse in that regard. Race reconciliation is not happening, and there is no sensible explanation of how it CAN happen under the current circumstances.

    The reason is that the Charter is basically an illusion – it cannot stand on its own merit because that is not where its power comes from. Its power comes from the barrel of a gun. That means any time it gets into trouble (like now) guns are what you are going to see – not Charter platitudes or persuasion. So what you see is the Charter. But what you get is dictatorship.

    If you want to deal with any behavioural issue, you must AT LEAST start with some kind of carrot and stick approach to it. And you must apply those equally to all – not just persecuting your enemies and rewarding your friends as is currently being done. That is where the Regime is messing everything up – their strongarm tactics are just an exercise in carpet-bombing. Guilty and innocent alike are being burned by it – and those who are “guilty” haven’t actually committed any “crime” yet in any case. Very messy!

    Anyway, if by some miracle reconciliation does somehow happen out of all that mess, the only guarantee of keeping it is the threat, or the actuality, of continued dictatorship.

    So there we are again – back at square one because of the circular reasoning of the Regime and its apologists. What would even the point of 2014 elections in those circumstances – we might as well just stay a dictatorship since that’s exactly where we would end up again under Frank’s and Graham’s alleged “way forward” for Fiji.

    In the end, the test of your conclusions is how good a guide they are to the future. So far they have been a pretty lousy guide as the “turnaround point” which you keep assuring us is coming, just keeps fading off into the indeterminate future.

    So here then is my stake in the ground. Given the known facts about the real motives of the regime, the 2014 election date will also be a bust! The only way we will have an election then is if it is either does not measure up to recognized independent international standards of freedom and fairness, or if credible international teams are simply not allowed in monitor them in the first place.

  32. Ratu Sai Says:

    Boy what a load of tripe coming from one of societies pukes.

  33. Budhau Says:

    Jean, you wrote, “The 2006 coup rationale statement may not have originally been yours. But you still used it to insist that Fiji couldn’t just take the obvious path out of this mess, admit the coup was wrong and misguided, and reverse all the mistakes that have been made since then.”
    I have already said on numerous occasions that all coups are power grabs – the 1987, 2000 and 2006 coup. Any explanation/justification for these coups are cover stories that the coup perpetrators come up with after the fact. The earlier coups were supposed to be for indigenous rights – we all know that that was a load of crap.
    As for this coup – the explanation in the early days of the coup was that it was an anti-corruption, “clean-up” campaign. That was because the regime had no idea what the reaction to the coup would be locally and they felt a need to explain to the locals why they pulled the coup. Once they found out the locals were not going to make a big fuss, the focus turned to the International community – and the cover story changed – now it was “electoral reforms” one-man-one-vote and the International community seems to be buying into this. I do not believe that the coup had anything to do with “electoral reforms.”
    So now, are we on the same page on this so far?
    What we disagree on is where we go from here. I think that the proposed electoral reforms make sense. Sort of the “support the cause, not the means” argument. Just like those other times, when Bavadra and Chaudary were kicked out – many supported the cause but not the means.
    The question is not “us” backing the hell out of this – it is about “them”, what would it take to get “the boys” to march back to the barracks.
    Frank probably feels that changing the electoral system would get Qarase out of the picture – remember his “over my dead body” remark – I think you should take that literally. The Epeli boys and Mara probably feel that changing the electoral system would give them a chance at forming the next government. Chaudary probably feels that one-man-one-vote probably gives him a better shot at having a say in the next government. So these guys are not just going to back down. Moreover, the electoral idea makes good sense.
    The A/NZ plan seems to be that they hurt Fiji economically and this will bring Bainimarama to his knees and then maybe the people, or some younger officers in the Military will rise against Bainimarama and bring him down – I do not see that happening. What I see is that if Frank and boys are backed into a corner, they will go down fighting. The aid from China, while not enough, will still be sufficient for the regime to survive.
    Your wish for “status quo ex poste ante?” – ain’t happening. You better come up with a plan B.
    You guys question the intelligence/experience of folks advising Bainimarama – that Frank is making some stupid moves – well, what else do you expect – with the travel ban, there are many good folks who would not work for the regime. The A/NZ lawyers will not work in Fiji, so there goes the judiciary. Those seasonal workers won’t go to work abroad – so screw the poor. When Frank does something like abrogate the constitution or media censorship etc – everyone is bitching – maybe if he had some better advice, he might not have done that. So when Frank makes a “stupid” move, the question then becomes what are you going to do about?
    So what we do now is instead of isolating Frank, we help him – give him constitutional experts who can work on the new, improved constitution. Let them determine how soon they can come up with something workable. We then get a timeframe as to when we can have the next election. Once Frank is dependent on A/NZ, we can trust him if he makes any promises. The more dependent he is on people he makes a promise to, the more he can be trusted. If Frank gets China’s backing and is able to survive, of course you cannot trust him with the promise of 2014 election. On this other hand, if he works with A/NZ and others, is dependent on them and promises them an election, I would be able to trust him more.
    There, we have the election in 2012. See…… how this thing can work.
    We may disagree on who will win the next election under the proposed electoral changes – but that is good, if both sides feel they have a chance, they will go along with the changes. (between you and I, Qarase ain’t gotta chance).
    You also wrote, “There is no real need for Bainimarama to acknowledge anything about his motives in the Davis interview, either. We already know that what comes out of his mouth is just about the worst guide there is as to what he is actually going to do.”
    I wasn’t talking about Bainimarama. What I said was Fraenkel’s reasoning was flawed. Fraenkel took FB’s comments and came up with “see, there is the reason why he moved the elections to 2014”. All I am saying is there was nothing in that article that would lead a reasonable person to the same conclusion that Fraenkel come up with. Fraenkel ain’t no idiot, what he was doing was pushing an agenda and he put a spin on that Davies story.
    You wrote, “Since we already know that there is no justification for the abrogation of the 1997 Constitution, and very little justification left for the 2006 coup, then all arguments that rely on those promptly fall in a heap.”
    The 1997 constitution was abrogated because Qarase made a wrong move when he tried to resolve a political question by a lawsuit. It may be true that FB may have had other legal options to work around the courts decision without abrogating the constitution, maybe he got some bad advice or maybe he just told Qarase “screw you”, I will just abrogate the constitution. Regardless, the constitution is abrogated.
    I do not believe that Fiji’s race problems will be solved by coups – however, I do feel that a constitution that is not race based would go a long ways into achieving that objective. If folks like Qarase decide not to use racial polarization to get into power – that will also help. (Since the Fijian population is 57%, it will help a Fijian leader to work on racial polarization, the same will work against an Indian leader to make race an issue). We cannot guarantee that there will be no more coups – however, leaving things the way they were will surely keep this coup cycle going.
    You wrote, “If you want to deal with any behavioural issue, you must AT LEAST start with some kind of carrot and stick approach to it.”
    Yeap, exactly what I was thinking – A/NZ should be doing that right now with Bainimarama.
    The regime’s strong-arm tactics are due to the fact that they are afraid. Any sign of protest, adverse reports etc – and they come down hard. Once we stop trying to bring them down by force, and go the constitutional route that leads up to the election, they will also be more comfortable. ..and give them that immunity.
    Yes, it is possible that we have an election in 2014, the SDL wins, and we have another coup – but how likely is that? That is where we would probably disagree.
    Do you have another plan, besides putting SDL back into power and Un-abrogating the constitution.
    The military will not march back to the barracks – unless they are defeated. Who will do that, an inside job through a mutiny, or some popular uprising, or the deteriorating economy leading up to an uprising. The only way out is negotiating our way out of this and we will get the best results if FB is not isolated and we give him and his boys immunity and a good retirement package. We then have our constitution, election and we move forward from there – 2012. Last week Frank, in response to a journalist’s suggestion that he talk to A/NZ responded that he was willing to talk and explain his position – what is the harm in A/NZ sending in one of their ace negotiator types to figure out what the dude has to say – and that would be the starting point – negotiate him down from there.

  34. Budhau Says:

    BTW Jean – I think I see a subtle change in NZ’s attitude – after ridiculing Bainimarama’s suggestion that he was open to talks, I saw this in the news today.

    “NZ Foreign Minister Murray McCulley has revealed that NZ will keep the doors open for dialogue with Fiji when there is a plan for progress towards elections.

    McCulley said although the Fiji government has been suspended from the Pacific Islands Forum it is not the end of the road for Fiji.”

    BTW – That National Party MP, John Hayes – he was the guy who worked out a deal in Bougainville – I think, NZ should get Hayes over to Fiji for a round of grog with Bainimarama.

  35. Dau Says:

    Well said Bud, makes sense; to me anyway. People should understand that POLITICS IS A FICKLE BEAST….. my advice, Dont sleep with the beast.

  36. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    Behind the scenes liaisons are just one part of diplomatic maneuverings. It may even even be happening as we speak.

    But there won’t be anything overt until Fiji climbs down from its high horse and complies with international demands.

    If Frank wants to play hardball and drag that out to 2014 or later, then that’s how long it will take for Fiji to be rehabbed into the international community.

    But there is no way he will trick or manipulate them into accepting what he has done.

  37. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    You wrote “Your wish for ‘status quo ex poste ante?’ – ain’t happening. You better come up with a plan B.”

    I did not bring that up as part of any Plan A in the first place. I brought it up as an example indicating what the REAL motives of the Regime are – which is that they are simply afraid of putting their plans and reputations to the popular scrutiny of a vote.

    You wrote “So when Frank makes a “stupid” move, the question then becomes what are you going to do about?”

    Word from those who have worked closely with Frank since 2006 is that he simply CANNOT accept outcomes or recommendations he doesn’t like. Not doesn’t want to – CAN’T! So the ones with any remnant of self-respect have therefore found it was simply impossible to work with him in the end. That means there is no real point in engaging too closely with someone who is still basically unrepentant, and whose idea of engagement is that it is simply the process of bending others to your will.

    That means that there is no point “doing anything about Frank silly moves” in any way that involves Frank himself. The only thing left is just to let him reap the consequences of his own actions so that the people who still think something good can come out of this will learn once and for all that is simply and finally NOT TRUE.

    It would have been nice if people like Kevin Barr and Petero Mataca would have had the foresight to see this for themselves before it all started unraveling into today’s ugly heap. But to corollarize Santayanna, those who don’t have the foresight to avoid looming problems, are just going to have to go through them. One way or the other, they’ll learn though.

    You have to remember that this is all happening against the backdrop of a new legal order that will allow this sort of political meatball surgery by the military any time their military council gets a dumb idea. Since we don’t have laws or courts or a Parliament to protect us from that anymore – the only protection we have left is our ability to learn from mistakes.

    That way, when dictators of the future lie to the people or the soldiers about political flights of fantasy that can supposedly only be achieved by breaking the law, then the nation will already empirical evidence that it doesn’t pay to follow or obey people who try to achieve things in ways that they simply cannot be achieved.

    No point surrounding Bainimarama with Constitutional experts then,since his problem is not the lack of good advice (he’s already getting plenty of that for free outside his circle of “kiss of death” advisors). Frank’s problem is the lack of ability to recognize good advice when he gets it, and the lack of ability to simply follow the law when he doesn’t. No amount of experts in anything are going to change that.

    You wrote “… the only way out of this is negotiation”. Well I guess that means there is no way out of this then, since Frank and Co. simply don’t know the meaning of the word (ie. negotiation).

    If Frank wants to emerge from his self-inflicted and deepening (internal and external) isolation, he must walk out of it himself. Nobody wants to be baby-sitting grown men who claim they are doing all this for our future. What future? If they want to serve the people, then let them serve. Otherwise – as you are so fond of saying – what’s done is done. Let the cards then fall where they may!

  38. Budhau Says:

    Jean, when I asked you for your plan B, you responded with, “I did not bring that up as part of any Plan A in the first place. I brought it up as an example indicating what the REAL motives of the Regime are – which is that they are simply afraid of putting their plans and reputations to the popular scrutiny of a vote.”

    OK, let us, for the sake of argument accept that the regime is afraid to hold an election because they think that they will lose. The question still remains – what are you going to do about it? Do you have a plan, maybe a suggestion.

    I still believe that Bainimarama, Chaudary, the Epeli boys, Mara Jnr and the rest believe that with the electoral changes, they have a chance to defeat SDL. Those named above have political interest, besides Bainimarama, who seems to be pissed of at Qarase and would like to see Qarase out at all cost. The others would like an election so that they can move on with their political careers.

    The folks on the SDL side probably also believe that with or without electoral changes – they will win hands down – because 57% of the population is Fijian and they will vote SDL. So their thing is “bring it on”.

    Based on the above – I have reason to believe that both sides would want an election – only that one side wants the election under the proposed electoral system and they may be buying some time also.

    Those fine points can be negotiated – election date, etc – and once it is determined that we all want a non-race based system, independent experts can recommend what is a fair system and how to draw up boundaries for constituencies and the like.

    The only question then remaining is how do we get to this election – and I say, draw up a new constitution and since we want an election soon, the SDL folks would not be putting up too many roadblocks and the process could move faster. Once we have a constitution, which I think would take a couple of years, with new constituency boundaries done, vote registration and the like – we could have an election in 2012.

    This is why A/NZ should not isolate this regime – they should provide for constitutional law experts to help draw up the new constitution. We should have independent expert assisting in this process. They should pay the new, independent election commissioner etc.

    With Frank engaged and even dependent on the International community, he is more likely to abide by any promises that he may make. You don’t have to take his word for it – we know that the more dependent he is, the more the likelihood of him keeping a promise.

    When it comes to trust in any negotiations, it is always dangerous to the person on the other side for his word. That is why I am saying that we figure out how trustworthy Frank would be based on how dependent he is on the folks he has made the promise to.

    For example, if Frank promises an election in 2014 to the forum countries – the forum countries kick his ass out of their organization. The A/NZ put all kinds of sanctions on Fiji. Bainimarama turns to China and survives till 2014. Are we going to trust Frank to hold an election in 2014 – HELL NO, specially when he may think that the SDL had a chance to get back into power.

    Now change the above fact pattern a bit – Bainimarama, in exchange for his promise to hold elections in 2012, is readmitted back in the Forum, EU reinstates is aid programme, A/NZ lifts its sanctions, assists with the new Constitution with experts and the Law Societies of those two countries allow its lawyer to work with the regime and we have a strong independent judiciary.

    Now, Fiji is a lot more dependent on the folks to whom Bainimarama has promised a 2012 election. Based on this, I think that there is a much better chance of having an election in 2012.

    This is where we disagree – and you will come back with your argument that “Word from those who have worked closely with Frank since 2006 is that he simply CANNOT accept outcomes or recommendations he doesn’t like. Not doesn’t want to – CAN’T!”

    Based on your reasoning, we just cannot work with Frank – no matter what. So in that case, I think you should start planning for an invasion, or get funds together for a militia that would fight in the streets of Suva – and condition for that would be ripe when we have the economic collapse and folks are starving back at home. Or those Young Turks in the army would rise and neutralize Bainimarama, a mutiny like that, which the army has probably already prepared for – we will have a shooting war at our hands.

    You are saying that there is no point in engaging with Bainimarama, however, I still have not seen a proposal from you as to how we will deal with the “Bainimarama problem”.

    You wrote, “The only thing left is just to let him (FB) reap the consequences of his own actions so that the people who still think something good can come out of this will learn once and for all that is simply and finally NOT TRUE.”

    It is not him, it is US who will reap the consequences of OUR actions – in how we decide to respond to Bainimarama.

    Does that mean that we should all “go down in flames” – it is not only going to be Frank and his people – it is the country.

    On your quotes, “those who don’t have the foresight to avoid looming problems, are just going to have to go through them. One way or the other, they’ll learn though.”

    I think that applies more to you than Frank.

    The military and others will always be a threat to democracy in Fiji – the question, going forward, is whether they will be more of a threat or less compared to what we have had in the last twenty years.

    As for people who pull military coups – they only have a problem if they fail – so regardless of what we do to Bainimarama and his boys, that in no way acts as a deterrent to future coupsters – as long as they believe they can succeeded either with superior fire power or with some popular support. In the past we have seen popular support for coups and I believe that if the conditions are right, we will see popular support for future coups.

    To my remark, “… the only way out of this is negotiation”. You responded, “Well I guess that means there is no way out of this then, since Frank and Co. simply don’t know the meaning of the word (ie. negotiation).”

    OK, so we are not going to negotiate – then what? How exactly do you plan to bring this guy down.

    You wrote, “If Frank wants to emerge from his self-inflicted and deepening (internal and external) isolation, he must walk out of it himself. Nobody wants to be baby-sitting grown men who claim they are doing all this for our future. What future? If they want to serve the people, then let them serve. Otherwise – as you are so fond of saying – what’s done is done. Let the cards then fall where they may!”

    This is not about Frank, this is about Fiji, this is about the Fijian people and their grand children. In five years from now, if Bainimarama survives, he would be insignificant, just like Rabuka – but the bigger mess that the country and its people can get into – they would be paying for that for generations. It is important how we deal with this “threat” – A/NZ and the US are looking after their own interest. To them it does not make much of difference how we bring down Bainimarama – to the folks in Fiji, it does.

    Jean – if you do not think negotiation is the way out of this – than you have to look at what its the best alternative to a negotiated settlement.
    If you think that the alternative is going to be better than a negotiated settlement then so be it. I think any resolution of this that is other than by negotiations, is going to be much worse.
    BTW – it is possible that the pressure on Frank may get him to negotiate – but you are of the opinion that we should never negotiate with this guy.

  39. Jean d'Ark Says:

    Bud!

    You wrote “The question still remains – what are you going to do about it? Do you have a plan, maybe a suggestion.”

    I already wrote my suggestion in my last comment – let Frank reap the consequences of his own actions. You remember how you are always so fond of pointing out the value of karma in the learning process.

    Well – either Frank will learn. Or this generation will. Or the succeeding ones will!

    And once we learn, then we will either not make the same mistakes again in future (of going on a wild goose chase that destroys the present in pursuit of an unattainable future), or better yet, we will stop making them NOW.

    Frank is not doing all of this damage by himself. He is being aided, abetted and enabled in it by a bunch of supporters who are doing so for varied reasons. A number of them have committed blatant treason, so they really have no choice now except to follow Frank’s lead to the bitter end. But there are a whole lot of others who support this coup because they (like you) actually think something good can come out of it.

    Well, since neither principle nor logic nor commonsense has been able to disabuse those people of those false hopes, then all that is left for it is reality. They will just have to suffer through in person, what they have been otherwise unable to avoid from lack of understanding or foresight.

    You say people are prepared to “pay the price” to fix Fiji’s underlying race problems. But what price is that? Three years of hardship? Eight? Twenty?

    And what are they paying that price for? What if the promised turnaround never comes? Or doesn’t come in time? More importantly HOW can the promised turnaround EVER come if the military keeps turning the nation upside down every time Frank doesn’t get his way?

    The Regime may be able to stay in power that way – but can they get the nation back on economic, political and Constitutional track with it? The answer to that must be what we have ALREADY witnessed to date – i.e. a resounding NO!

    So once a critical mass of coup supporters come to terms with the basically fraudulent and deluded idea that the Charter could ever be achieved in the way it is currently being pursued, there is nothing left to keep them in the pro-coup camp.

    There are about 100 or so people who cannot leave the pro-coup camp because they’ve already burned their bridges through treason. But what could Frank really achieve if he only had those 100 to do his dirty work for him? And what great thing would Fiji miss out on as a nation if he couldn’t? There is really no downside here if the Charter proves to be the illusion that commonsense, logic and empirical evidence already indicate that it must be (at least in the lawless, non-inclusive and non-participatory “wag the dog” way that it is currently being pursued).

    So if Frank could not hold the nation to ransom any more with only 100 supporters left, what is critical number of supporters below which his “power” over the nation vanishes?

    Who knows? But it must be some range or number. And no-one can deny that things are currently headed in that direction. Former strong coup supporters or collaborators are slowly but surely either disappearing or defecting. Tony Gates and others haven’t signed up to the “new” High Court bench. Surend Sharma has resigned. John Sami has not been seen or heard for months. Rajen Chaudhry and Amani Bale have signed an FLS letter condemning and REJECTING the purported abrogation of Fiji’s Constitution. Mahen Chaudhry has openly criticized the Regime, and is apparently even now fomenting cane trouble in the North. And there are groups of soldiers who have already indicated that they would not obey orders to shoot civilians in the event of political disturbances.

    One swallow does not a summer make. But increasing numbers of them certainly herald something – even if it is only doubt. Against that backdrop, coup-camp “defectors” would not be doing so into a vacuum. And even if they opted out, as many are, into sideline “neutrality”, how could Frank still use them to prosecute his aims?

    You wrote “it is possible that the pressure on Frank may get him to negotiate – but you are of the opinion that we should never negotiate with this guy”.

    Maybe that was a bit harsh of me. What I should have said was – EVERY incident in the past has indicated that there is really no point in negotiating with him. If he keeps stubbornly heading in that direction, then that assessment stands. But if we see signs of GENUINE change and repentance (none of which we have seen to date) then it might worth liaising with some intermediaries to see what might be on the table. However, that is a very dubious process since it relies on Frank’s so-far completely unproven and absent ability to keep his word.

    I am not even considering that remote possibility though. In my view if Teleni’s nascent and heart-felt Christian values have not even prompted him in the direction of repentance, then we are unlikely to find anything of that sort from Frank or Aiyaz.

    I see where you are coming from in trying to find a solution to this mess. But I don’t accept that is my responsibility since I am not the one who got Fiji into this mess in the first place. Frank and his military council got us into this mess – and only they, or their supporters can get us out.

    As for me, I can only do what I can do – which so far is just to point out what I see misconceptions and dead-ends in the hope that they are not persisted with, or repeated.

    In that sense, I’ll tell you what. We both know the Charter is pretty much dead in the water by now. Nonetheless it was at least at some level and some stage, a genuine attempt to address Fiji’s fundamental problems. So why don’t we have a whirl at trying to address some of the issues in which the Charter failed. I know you’re busy on the Blogs 24-7. But you’re a pretty clever guy with an impressive database of political history, so this won’t take up too much of your time.

    Anyway, my suggestion is why don’t we critique each other’s ideas on a new “Charter” for Fiji’s future to see what stands up, and what falls down. Then if we come up with anything we could “run it up the flagpole and see if anyone else salutes”. If we do that genuinely, and with a view to establish propositions rather than defend ideologies or “win” debates, we might even be able to come up with a couple of building blocks that could help influence the thinking of the many future decision-makers who are doubtless already spending lots of time on the Freedom Blogs even now.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: