How long can this regime last?

Do not despair. These evil days will pass.

In the great scheme of things, the time in the sun for the criminal
gang holding Fiji hostage will not be long. Rabuka’s time passed and
so will theirs, but it will be much briefer.

The media keep talking about this being the fourth coup and, in a
sense they are right to use this language. Not because this coup is
anything like the others, but because being the fourth, the outside
world sees that Fiji has an on-going problem with coups.

After four coups outside investors judge Fiji very harshly. They will
remain reluctant to invest in Fiji, and a small economy such as Fiji will
always depend crucially on outside investment to compete
internationally. Tourism is also the lifeblood of the economy

Foreign investment brings the latest business practice and
technology as well as links to foreign markets. The Indian economy
started to take-off when it was opened to foreign investment and
trade, just as the Chinese economy had been opened three decades
earlier.

The illegal government knows this reality well. Their propaganda
about the economy is aimed at international consumption as well a
domestic audience. Just look at their rush to intervene on behalf of
the Momi Bay project. They are very sensitive to foreign investors.

Some of the crooks, at least, know Just how precarious their situation
is. The tough foreign exchange controls are a desperate attempt to
stave off capital flight and devaluation, which may not succeed for
much longer.

Rabuka’s coups also exacted an enormous price from all of the
people of Fiji, in both the short term and the long term. Not the least
of these costs was the loss of many skilled people through
emigration. The year 2000 was another major set back for the
economy.

Surely it’s time to move on from the past. A lot of lessons were
learned in the decade from 1987 to 1997. As a result of those
lessons a new constitution was voted into existence by a clear
majority of the people’s representatives in Parliament, despite the
racial bias of that Parliament. The constitutions of 1970 and 1992
could never claim that legitimacy.

No matter how acquiescent the public may seem, the regime is
doomed. It has no legitimacy, either legally or politically. It had a
measure of passive support to start with in the Indo-Fijian community,
but this cannot last.

Chaudhry’s old support base in the public sector can already see how
comprehensively he has sold them out. His supporters in the sugar
industry will eventually learn the same lesson. He will not deliver the
EU aid needed to restructure the sugar industry, nor can he achieve
lease renewals. There are some things that cannot be delivered at
the point of a gun.

The economy will certainly be their undoing. So long as the illegal
regime is in place, serious capital will steer clear of Fiji. Apart from
the ever-present spectre of devaluation there is the absence of the
rule of law and the inherent uncertainty of a regime imposed purely
by force.

It’s only a matter of time. Chaudhry may be the first to leave if he
perceives a need to rebuild his flagging constituency ahead of
elections. If he remains in place he will face considerable discontent.

Bune could also desert. As soon as the balance of advantage tips in
that direction he’ll be off, as always thinking of Number One ahead of
anything or anybody else.                         .

4^

The Mara gang will be the last to leave. They need the money too
much and the culture of dependence which nurtured them will keep
them in place till the last.

Frank, of course, is going nowhere, oxccpt Korovou, Gt Giles or——-
Lovonilase. The real question is which of his henchmen will be the
first to go.

This is not a regime built to last. Desperation drove Frank to stage
the coup and opportunism supplied a few second rate confederates.
The hollow rhetoric of the People’s Charter will not stop the rats from
deserting as the economic ship starts to take on more water.
Commodore Vore may want to go down with the ship, but one of the
deserting rats may seek to redeem himself by taking him for a ride
down Reservoir Road, whether to stop at St Giles, Lovonilase or
Korovou, who knows.

FDN

check this out and much much more on the Fiji for Democracy website